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A Shockingly Simple Stocks Momentum Indicator

Mar 9, 2010 Uncategorized

Following a trend is great. But if the trend is moving quickly, you want to know that so that you can get ahead of it. If the rate of change of the trend is going up, rising prices are going to follow quickly.

Momentum was the velocity multiplied by the mass of the object. Now first what is a momentum? You must have read about the momentum in high school physics.Velocity was the rate of change. Now. a simple way to calculate the momentum of any security price is to divide the closing price today by the closing price ten days back and then multiply it by 100! So when we talk of momentum in trading, we are talking of the rate of change of any security prices.

This gives you the momentum indicator. If the prices didn’t go anywhere momentum indicator will be 100. If the prices went up, the momentum indicator will be greater than 100 and the prices went down, the momentum indicator will be less than 100. Now, a trend is expected to continue if the momentum indicator is greater than 100.

Momentum is a leading indicator. It tells you what is likely to happen in the future not what happened in the past. Momentum trading is done with some attention to the fundamentals. When key business fundamentals like the sales or profits are accelerating at the same time the security price is going up, momentum is likely to continue.

However, in momentum investing, you search for stocks that have rising prices that are expected to continue for sometime. So you buy high and sell even higher within a few weeks making a decent profit. You can use that profit to do more investing. As said before, instead of investing in a security or a stock you can do momentum investing. When you are doing ordinary investing, you are waiting for its price to appreciate to give you a capital gain. This price appreciation might take from a few months to even years tying down your capital in that investing.

What a momentum investor is looking for is a security that is going to move big. But this move big is going to happen on a long term horizon instead of a few days. The expectation is to make money on the longer term. The thought is that if the security is starting to go up in price, it will keep going up in prices unless something dramatic happens to change. In the meantime, you can make a lot of money.

There are many way to do momentum investing. One is the price momentum that we have talked above. The other can be Earning Momentum. If you are a long haul investor who keeps an eye on the financial statements of different companies and you find that the quaterly earnings are going up steadily from one quater to another. What this means is that the stock price will also accelerate and follow suit.

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Tags: business, Currency trading, day trading, Etfs, forex, money, Mutual Funds, Real Estate, retirement, stocks, trading, wealth building

Energy Futures (Part I)

Nov 27, 2009 Real Estate

Again crude oil prices have started rising. The recent price of crude oil was quoted as $ 80 per barrel. It is being predicted that the price will soon reach the $ 100 per barrel mark. One thing should be clear to you. Energy markets will be a major focal point in the global financial makers and the global economy for many years to come. The key to understanding energy trading is to understand oil, natural gas, gasoline and heating oil futures.

Trading in energy futures is centralized at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange. NYMEX trades futures and options contracts for crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, gasoline, coal, electricity and propane. NYMEX is also home to trading in metals. Trading in NYMEX is conducted in two divisions: 1) The NYMEX Division and 2) The COMEX Division. For smaller traders NYMEX offers e-mini contracts for oil and natural gas that also trades on the GLOBEX network of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

Next to interest rates, energy and especially oil is the center of the universe not only for the industry but also for the financial markets. The relationship between energy and interest rates is very important to understand. This relationship ties together the two most important aspects of the global economy: energy (the fuel for growth) and the interest rates (the catalyst that powers borrowed money to do things).

The relationship between energy and interest rates is very important to understand. This relationship ties together the two most important aspects of the global economy: energy (the fuel for growth) and the interest rates (the catalyst that powers borrowed money to do things). Next to interest rates, energy and especially oil is the center of the universe not only for the industry but also for the financial markets.

As a trader, you should know this fact that oil price rise often tends to slow down the economy and lower retail sales as well as consumer confidence with lower traffic on the highways. Sometimes the rise in oil prices leads to the increase in interest rates through the bond market and the actions of central banks and the other times the opposite happens. Rise in oil prices if often inflationary.

Now you need to understand the Peak Oil Concept. Peak oil is the concept that the world oil production has peaked and the production of oil will never be as high again. Oil prices and the interest rates generally move in the same direction when viewed over long periods of time.

In any case, most of the experts now agree that in the next 10-20 years, the oil production will peak and after that it will start declining. Now you should keep these facts in the background of your mind as a trader.

Now this means that in the short run, following oil prices can be a highly profitable strategy. Your aim as a trader is to make quick profits by trading the price fluctuations in the oil market. So the important facts that you need to keep in the back of your mind while trading oil is: 1) Demand fluctuates but supply of oil is finite. 2) The world runs on oil and any threat to the supply of oil often leads to rising prices. As an oil trader your primary goal is to consider the effects of events on the supply of oil and correlate this effect with your charts.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Trade Dow Futures . Learn Commodity Trading ! Get a totally unique version of this article from our article submission service

Tags: business, Currency trading, day trading, ecommerce, finance, forex, INVESTING, Market News, money, Real Estate, stocks, trading, wealth

What Is Shorting Stocks?

Nov 17, 2009 Real Estate

When the market is falling, investors sell short a stock with the goal of profiting from the fall in the price of that stock. Many beginning investors get confused when they realize that it is possible to make money when the stock falls in price. In practice, shorting a stock is as easy as buying stocks once you get hang of it.

When you short a stock, you borrow it from you broker and sell it with the intention of buying it back at a lower price in the near term future and returning it to your broker. The difference between the selling price and the buying price in case the price goes down is your profit.

You are anticipating further fall in the price of the stock when you short a stock. When the price of a stock goes down, you make profit. However, if the price of the stock instead of going down starts to go up, you get a loss.

Theoretically a stock price can go up and up making your loss as big as infinity. So shorting a stock without proper risk and money management is not wise. However, before that happens most probably you will receive a margin call from your broker that leads to a forced sale before your losses reach unmanageable proportions.

In the stock market crash of 2008, many financial companies went bankrupt due to the short selling of their shares by the speculators. Some people are against the strategy of shorting stocks. A temporary ban was put on shorting for sometime during that period.

Swing trading is all about looking for making a quick profit by riding the trend in the market for a few days to a few weeks. In swing trading, we are simply looking to profit from the ups and downs of stock prices. When the price of a stock goes down, short selling is the best swing trading strategy. However, the goal of short selling is not to drive the price of a stock to zero and put the company out of business.

One reason why swing traders love short selling is due to the velocity of the moves! Negative news like poor earning, credit rating downgrade or a poor product launch can bring down a stock price in a matter of minutes and wipe out the steady gains made in months.

Shot selling can be a good hedging strategy for long term investors too. So if you a long term investor, you can lessen the impact of the sharp price drop on your portfolio by using a short selling hedging strategy. Swing traders always look for big winners and this brings them to the short side of the market. When the price of a stock starts to fall, chances are it will fall more before the market stabilizes and the price starts to rise again.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Try This Cash Printing Forex Signal Service From Heaven! Learn Swing Trading! Click here to get your own unique version of this article with free reprint rights.

Tags: business, day trading, ecommerce, finance, forex, futures, INVESTING, Market News, Mutual Funds, Options, Real Estate, stocks, trading, wealth building

Backtesting Explained (Part I)

Nov 11, 2009 Real Estate

Backtesting any trading strategy allows a trader to simulate its expected performance using historical price data. With Backtesting, traders can actually test their trading strategies and know how well they would have done if executed in the past.

Now an important question that comes to anyone’s mind is what type of a trading strategy can be backtested? Any trading strategy that does not have any ambiguity in its rules can be backtested effectively. Example of a simple trading strategy that can be backtested can be as follows.

When the DMI+ is above DMI- and the MACD histogram has crossed above the zero line, go long when the 5 period moving averages has crossed above the 20 period moving averages.

When the MACD histogram has crossed below the zero line and DMI- is above DMI+, sell short when the 5 period moving averages has crossed below the 20 period moving average.

However, using the past price data to simulate future results often misleads traders into thinking that their backtested results will also give similar results in actual real time trading. This one example is just meant to illustrate that any trading strategy having clear cut rules can be backtested with the historical data.

There is much difference between live trading performance and the backtested trading performance. Many potential factors can and will make hypothetical performance and actual performance differ significantly. So you should not fall into the trap of thinking that Backtesting may be a perfect method for identifying the most profitable trading strategies.

Market fundamentals keep on changing. This makes a trading strategy that may have worked very well over the past three years work in an entirely different manner for the next three years as the market changes and evolves. One of the most important facts that you should always keep in your mind is that market changes considerably overtime.

Do you know that often technical indicators that have been giving profitable signals in the past are subsequently unable to replicate their performance in the future? This may frustrate you. But this is exactly what makes trading a challenging endeavor.

Secondly, a trading strategy in real time may be much different from the way the trading strategy behaves on Backtesting in term of trade execution. These differences can potentially skew the results.

However, you should still not underestimate the benefits of Backtesting. Backtesting can provide a trader with a reasonable expectation of the trading strategy’s potential worth and usefulness. Backtesting is still the best available method for evaluating a trading strategy without actually trading it in real time environment.

Now let’s discuss how to do Backtesting. Backtesting can be done by using two methods. The first one is the automated Backtesting. This is the most popular method. Automated Backtesting entails using a specialized program. The trader inputs the specific rules and criteria for the trading strategy into the Backtesting program.

The software than automatically applies those rules to the past price data and tallies the past hypothetical profits, losses and other information. An entire picture of the past performance is created.

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Tags: business, Commodities, finance, forex, futures, INVESTING, Market News, money, Mutual Funds, Options, Real Estate, stocks, trading, wealth building

Stop Loss Orders

Oct 31, 2009 Real Estate

Risk management is an important part of any trading decision. One important way to control your trading risk is by setting stop loss exits. A stop loss exit is a practical tool used in risk management. However, there is an art of developing the right stop loss exit strategy.

Placing your stop loss requires fine tuning on your part. On the one hand, you dont want to get too liberal with your stops that you never lock in a profit. On the other hand, you dont want to set too tight stops that you constantly get bumped out of the market.

The topic of setting stop loss exits generally falls under the heading of trading systems. Your exits must be carefully coordinated with your entries. This is a trading skill that you can only learn with experience.

There are a variety of stops that you can incorporate into your trading system. The following sevens are the most valuable:

1. Initial Stop: Whenever you enter a trade, put a stop loss first. It is the largest loss that you are going to take in the current trade. This stop is identified before you enter the market. This is the first stop set at the very beginning of the trade. The initial stop is also used to calculate your position size.

2. Trailing Stop: Trailing stops develop as the market develops. The trailing stop lets you lock in profit as the market moves in your favor.

3. Resistance Stop: A resistance stop is placed just under the countertrend pullbacks in a trend. This is a form of a trailing stop used in trends.

4. Three Bar Trailing Stop: This stop is used in a trend when the market seems to be losing momentum and you anticipate a reversal in trend.

5. One Bar Trailing Stop: When the prices have reached your profit target zone, use this stop after three to five bars move strongly in your favor. This stop is used when there is a breakaway market and you want to lock in profits.

6. Trendline Stop: You always want to get out when the prices close on the opposite side of the trendline. Use a Trendline Stop placed under the lows in an uptrend or on top of highs in a downtrend.

7. Regression Channel Stop: A regression channel forms a channel between the highs and lows of the trend and usually represents the width of the trend channel. Stops are placed on the outside of the lows of the channel on uptrends and outside the highs of the channel in downtrends. Prices should close outside the channel for the stop to be taken.

If you find yourself being stopped out too frequently or if you seem to be getting out of the trend too early then most probably you are trading with a fearful mindset. Try to overcome your fear and place your stops at reasonable places in the market.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Learn These Candlestick Patterns. Try These 1500 Pips A Day Forex Signals from heaven! You are welcome to reprint this article - but get your own unique content version here.

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Understand Forex Leverage

Oct 16, 2009 Real Estate

Whats so special about Forex Leverage? Another feature of forex markets that differentiates it from other financial markets is the astronomical level of leverage that is commonplace in the forex world.

Forex brokers can offer up to 400:1 leverage on the average retail trading account. This means that $1 in a traders forex account can control up to $400 in a currency trade. The implications of this are mind boggling. No other financial market offers even close to this level of leverage.

Forex leverage can both be a very positive feature as well as a very negative one. Leverage is type of financial magnification by definition. Forex leverage is a double edged sword. While it is true that high leverage magnifies profits, it also magnifies losses equally.

Used with a great deal of caution, however, high leverage of the magnitude found in forex trading can offer tremendous possibilities to the upside as well as the downside. However often, this high level of leverage summarily wipes out otherwise healthy trading accounts.

If you have been trading stocks than you already know that stock brokers only offer leverage ratio of 2:1 on margin accounts. The futures market is better. FCMs (Futures Commission Merchants) offer leverage of 10:1 to futures traders. But in case of forex trading, common leverage ratios offered by forex brokers range from 50:1 on the low side all the way up to 400:1 on the high side. Even on the low side, as compared to the amount of leverage available in other financial markets, the sheer magnitude of forex leverage far eclipses whatever leverage is available in other markets.

In practical terms, what this means to a forex trader is that a standard lot of $100,000 for example can be traded in EUR/USD currency pair with only $250 in trading account margin. Of course, this is assuming that 400:1 leverage is utilized.

In this particular example, $250 in your forex trading account can control a trade of $100,000 using 400:1 leverage. In other words, for every $1, you as a forex trader are in fact controlling a whopping $400.

Some brokers even advertise that you can open a trading account with $50. With $50 you can trade a mini lot of $10,000 using a 200:1 leverage ratio. The fact that a small amount of money can control a large amount of money in forex trading can certainly serve to magnify potential profits. Can you handle this much leverage while trading? The amount of risk involved in using this high level of leverage is also equally magnified, however on the flip side of the coin.

High leverage trading is aggressive trading that is both characterized by high risk and high reward potential. Therefore, it is advisable to use caution when trading with the substantial leverage common in forex trading.

Dont get hoodwinked by the forex broker advertisements. Too much leverage is dangerous. Even a small movement in the market can be magnified many times by using leverage making large profits for you when the market moves in your favor. Now this is the positive side. You need leverage in forex markets because the size of the currency pair movements is too small. So you need to magnify it with leverage. However, when the market moves even a small amount against your position, your whole trading account can get wiped out. This is the dark side of using too high a leverage.

You need to know the safe level of leverage you can use in your trading. In the beginning, dont use more than 5:1 leverage in your trading. You can increase that level to 10:1 or 20:1 with experience, but this much leverage would be sufficient for you. Once you really start trading like a professional trader than you can use 100:1 ratio to trade a standard lot.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Try 1500 Pips a day Forex Signals. Discover a revolutionary Forex Robot Trading System!

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Currency Profile Of British Pound (Part III)

Oct 15, 2009 Real Estate

UK tends to share a more common set of views with the United States. Economically, the United Kingdom is more free-market oriented than Europe. The United Kingdom cant totally disassociate itself from Europe at the same time, given its history and its geography. The upshot is a currency that is affected by politics at home and on the two continents to which its destiny is so closely related.

The British Pound GBP) is active against the dollar and the euro, offering good opportunities to trade both pairs (GBP/USD and USD/GBP). The GBP/USD is one of the most liquid currency pairs in the world. 6% of the all the global currency trading involves GBP as either the base or counter currency.

GBP is also in the four most traded major currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF in the world. One of the reasons for GBP liquidity is the countrys highly developed capital markets.

Many hedge funds are located in London. UK is an important foreign investment destination. Many foreign investors seeking to diversify their investment other than the United States send their funds to the UK. Foreigner investors need to convert their local currency into GBP in order to create these investments.

GBP was full of speculators one to two years back. GBP had one of the highest interest rates in the developed countries. Although Australia and New Zealand had still higher interest rates but their financial markets are not as well developed as UK.

Carry trading was popular with many hedge fund managers. It is a long term fundamental trading strategy. Carry traders would use GBP as the lending currency taking advantage of the high interest rates and would go long against USD, JPY and CHF.

UK Treasury had to intervene heavily in the market by pumping money into a number of failing banks in order to stabilize the financial markets. The present global financial crisis has taken a heavy toll on the British Banks as well. There have been a number of high profile bankruptcies.

Interest rates have been lowered. An exodus of carry traders took place that increased volatility in GBP with the lowering of the interest rates. Interest rate differentials between UK gilts/US Treasuries is a barometer for GBP/USD flows and UK gilts/German Bunds is a barometer for EUR/GBP flow. These interest rate differentials are widely watched by the professional forex traders to judge where the money will flow between US, UK and EU.

Indications on adopting the Euro usually put negative pressure on GBP while further opposition to Euro boosts GBP. The three month eurosterling futures reflect market expectations on UK interest rates three months into the future and can help predict fluctuations of GBP/USD.

GBP has positive correlation with the energy prices. GBP/USD is more liquid than EUR/USD. However, EUR/GBP is the leading gauge for GBP strength. GBP/USD tends to be more sensitive to the developments in the US economy. EUR/GBP is a more pure fundamental pound trade as EU is the UK primary trading and investment partner.

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Understanding Forex Margin Call

Oct 14, 2009 Real Estate

Have you started dreading the forex margin call? The risk that is assumed when trading aggressively the currency markets often results in receiving a margin call. But contrary to the popular opinion that a margin call represents that worst case scenario for the currency trader, this is far from the truth. The worst case could be far worse.

A margin call is in fact a safeguard to protect a trader from losing 100% or even more of the money in the trading account. To owe additional funds to the broker is actually the worse case scenario. This uncomfortable position is largely avoided because of the existence of the margin call.

In stock trading, you will receive an actual call from the broker to add more funds to your margin account when equity is running low. Unlike the world of stock trading, a margin call is not actually a physical call from your broker in forex trading.

In forex trading when the trader no longer has enough equity in the trading account to keep the open positions viable, the trading platform software automatically closes out all the open positions and immediately realizes all losses at the prevailing market rates.

Prices can move extremely fast in forex markets and because of the high leverage used, every price move is magnified. There are good reasons for automated margin calls in forex trading, although this may seem a bit cold hearted.

The trading account can become depleted very quickly with not enough time to call for more funds when the traders equity runs low in forex trading. The forex margin call closes all open positions to help ensure that the trader does not lose the entire account or worse as a safeguard measure.

Lets make it clear with an example. Suppose you have $1500 in your trading account. So exactly when is a margin call triggered? This depends exactly on the number and the size of the lots being traded, the leverage chosen and the equity in the account. Suppose you use a leverage of 100:1 to trade in standard lots of $100,000.

You want to trade one standard lot of EUR/USD. That is EUR 100,000. Suppose the EUR/USD exchange rate is 1.3465. You need to convert it into Euros since your account is in US Dollars. So you need $1346 to trade standard lot EUR 100,000. This is because with a leverage of 100:1, EUR 1000 are needed to control EUR 100,000.

Suppose you are a new forex trader. You dont know much about forex trading. However you have read that it is a great opportunity to make money. Naturally you are very enthusiastic about trading forex as quickly as possible. So you dont know that stop losses are used to minimize downside risk in trading. You start trading without putting stop losses in place. Your trading account has $1500. The margin required to keep the trade open is $1346. Each pip is exactly equal to $10 in this case.

When your equity drops below $1346, you will receive a margin call. You have $1500 equity in your trading account. Your open position will be automatically closed when you receive a margin call. That means once you lose the excess equity in your account above the margin required to trade a standard lot that is $1500-$1346= $154. This is equal to 15.4 pips loss (assuming no spread).

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Treat Currency Trading As A Business

Oct 14, 2009 Real Estate

If you are currently trading for a living or want to take on trading as a future substitute of a current job, then you should remember to take trading as a business. You need to treat it as a business.

You need to give some consideration to the fact that how you are going to deduct your monthly expenses such as your computer equipment, your quote feed, your DSL line, travel to investment conferences and continuing education seminars. How are you going to treat trading as a business? You should think whether you need to form a private limited company or a public limited company.

This can help you save thousands of dollars annually. You should seek advice from a tax specialist so that you can take advantage of all the regular and necessary expenses as business deductions.

After all it would be heart breaking to know that you cannot make expense deductions that could literally save you thousands of dollars after you have consistently started making money in the market.

Lets see what your expenses can be as a forex trader: You need to have a room where you have the required peace for trading. Then you have to have equipment that includes desktop computers, printers, laptop for travel and so one. Lets say these things cost you $5000. Suppose you rent a small one room office that could cost you like $500-1000 per month.

You need a good DSL connection for your trading, $50 per month for the DSL expense. A price quote feed might cost you like $200 per month. You attend an investment conference that might cost you $1000 roundtrip airfare plus $300 per night for the night stay at a hotel.

You could be taking as little as $5000 to $25,000 per year in actual business expenses that could be deducted if you are running trading as a business and if you have business entertaining expenses and went to two investment conferences per year.

Do you have a business plan? What business plan you have in place to protect the money you make in the market. If you are a small time investor and decide that trading for a living is something that interests you, you should think do you have the financial resources, time and emotional makeup to trade full time.

As a long term trader what will you do when the market conditions change according to your system or methods? You need to cover your cost of living expenses, mortgage payments as well as your business expenses.

The forex market offers you a unique opportunity to participate on a pay as you go method because there are no commissions. Forex dealers provide free charts and quotes. But you have to cover the bid-ask spread each time you trade as a trading cost.

Suppose you are a day trader, you trade twice a day with a 3 pips bid-ask spread. Suppose you trade 10 lots ($100,000) each trade. So your daily trading cost will be $600 = (3) (2) (10) (10). If there are 200 trading days in a year, it means $120,000. So you need to cover $120,000 as your trading cost annually not to talk of your actual losses. You need to keep this in mind that trading is not free.

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What Is Position Trading? (Part I)

Oct 13, 2009 Real Estate

Position trading is all about taking a directional market position and holding it as long as the trade makes sense from the trend standpoint. This means that positions are held for longer term. Now there are four style of trading: Scalping, Day Trading, Swing Trading and Position Trading.

Position trading may mean keeping a trade open from one week to a month to as long as a year or possibly more in the fast moving world of forex trading. Most individual and retail traders do not have the patience for position trading.

Only those position traders who have the patience to stick with the trend and let their profits run are generally able to capitalize on these longer term price moves. This is somewhat unfortunate as most retail traders dont have that patience. Position trading can be one of the most profitable styles of trading due to the fact that many currencies tend to trend well on long term basis.

Due to its long term time frame, position trading tends to rely heavily on fundamental analysis along with longer term technical analysis. This is unlike day trading or swing trading that relies almost exclusively on technical analysis due to the short time frames.

Fundamental analysis is geared towards longer term price forecasts rather than swing to swing movements that are primarily the focus of technical analysis. Fundamental analysis concerns itself with the economic forces that drive the major market movements.

The general direction of change in the currency value over the long run is what interests the position traders. The economic forces that determine the long term trend of a currency include interest rates, inflation, GDP, unemployment and help to determine the value of the national currency overtime.

Trading with the trend is what the trend traders do. Position trading and trend trading both follow almost similar approaches. However, position traders often rely on fundamentals along with the technicals; trend traders are almost exclusively technical in nature.

Carry trading was very popular last year with the hedge fund managers. The most popular currency pair for carry traders was NZD/JPY. As carry traders hold interest positive positions to benefit from both regular interest payments and exchange rate profits, carry trading can be considered a form of position trading. How do position traders decide which position to take?

Fundamental analysis exclusively! Position traders establish positions on currency pairs according to their views and experience based on fundamental analysis. Forex position traders weigh strength and weaknesses in currencies by taking various fundamental and technical factors into account.

Lets suppose that a position trader is of the view that the US Dollar is indicating fundamental weakness going forward. He/she has performed fundamental analysis on economic conditions surrounding the major currency pairs that involve the US Dollar on either side of the pair.

The position trader thinks that the Euro is showing significant fundamental strength at the same time that the US Dollar is showing weakness going forward. This opinion may have been based on the recent rate of economic growth, comments by the Federal Reserve Board (FED) Chairman or the President of European Central Bank (ECB), the state of ongoing recession, on the state of inflationary/deflationary pressure in the economy and so on.

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