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How The Hedge Fund Managers Trade Forex? (Part II)

Jul 26, 2009 Real Estate

You must have read Part I of how hedge fund managers trade forex. You need to understand that hedge fund managers are always on their nerves edge. They constantly look for strategies that work.

Hedge fund managers want to make good money while always on their guard if things go bad, how to get out of a bad position before it really hurts. You as individual investors also want to bet your own hard earned money in the hope of making capital gains.

Ranging and trending are two primary trading methods. Many hedge fund managers like to follow the trend. Dont forget the saying, Trend is your friend. If you want to become a trend trader, than you need to understand and anticipate trends that may develop in currency pairs. If you want to do range trading, you should understand what best times when currency pairs are ranging and how to do scalping and when.

You also need to decide the time frame that you will trade most. You should decide whether you will use the 5 min charts, 30 min charts, 4 hour charts , daily charts etc and why.

Will you only day trade or hold your position overnight? If you are doing a job, will you trade after hours? What time of trading best suits you? These things should be very clear in your mind before you start trading.

Learning the art of entry and exit is essential for your success. Should it be single entry, single exit? Should it be single entry, multiple exits? Should it be multiple entries, single exit? Should it be multiple entry, multiple exits?

You should learn money management principles in depth. It is good money management principles and their consistent application that will make you survive in the long run. Never ever try to put more than 3% of your equity at stake at one time. Understand how to calculate the reward/risk ratio for each trade. Never trade if the reward/risk ratio is below 3/1

Now, test drive the forex system by back testing and forward testing. Back testing can be done on Metatrader and other platforms. Forward test your strategies on a demo account.

Open a mini account and try to test it live with a small amount of money. This way you will not lose much money but will be playing against your emotions.

Ultimately trading is all about developing discipline and controlling emotions. You dont get this feel in demo trading when you know nothing is at stake.

Get intimate with your strategies. There are two primary types of trading strategies”one that has a high percentage of profitable trades and one that has a high profit factor.

The key factor here is to know and find out what type of market environment your trading strategy performs well in and what type of market environment your trading strategy fails in. Because only then will you know what works under what conditions and what does not work.

Drawdown is very important. Know how much drawdown you can afford. You can establish bench mark figures using a back test for each trading strategy. Decide before you trade, how much drawdown is acceptable before you need to pull the plug out of the trade.

The last step of thinking or trading like a hedge fund manager is self reflection. Oftentimes we become so absorbed with trading that we do not notice the obvious.

This is why it is important to spend some time on a weekly or monthly basis to go over or reflect on your trading. You need to establish a certain ROI level for yourself and keep on tweaking your trading strategies until you start achieving that figure.

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An adjustable rate mortgage(ARM): Should you opt for one?

Jun 28, 2009 Real Estate Properties

Not too long ago, the Adjustable Rate Mortgage was the best way to buy a home. Especially if you were just getting started in your career and expected your income to increase. If you do not have the money to buy the perfect home, you could elect a Adjustable Rate Mortgage and have a much lower payment. An Adjustable Rate Mortgage interest rate can change every year based on market conditions. A Fixed rate mortgage is not dependent on market conditions and your payment would remain fixed.

There have been extended time periods where the adjustable rate mortgage was the best mortgage option. Borrowers had their home mortgage payments reduced year after year. In the long run, mortgage rates are cyclical. When the condition of the world financial markets change, adjustable rate mortgages can skyrocket.

The exact rate of interest for an Adjustable Rate Mortgage is determined by the index to which your mortgage is attached and the frequency at which your mortgage is allowed to adjust. These terms are defined in your mortgage note, a document you sign prior to the close of escrow. Your index is influenced by a number of factors like inflation, world market conditions and many other complex factors.

Keeping these various factors in mind, the rate of ARM is determined. This pre-determined rate of interest is used to calculate your payments for the rest of the fiscal year, though it can be revised at any time depending on the terms of your mortgage note. Depending on the credit cycle, it is seen that the interest rate for adjustable mortgages rises or falls with every passing year.

The pitfall is that this rate can increase substantially, and people may find it more and more difficult to make their payments and retain their property. For example, if the interest rate goes up by 1%, people, who earlier had to pay about $500 towards an adjustable rate mortgage payment, may have to shell out as much as $ 570-600 for the same home (depending on the mortgage details).

Any sudden increase in adjustable rate mortgage payments will make it more and more difficult for people to retain their property, especially if their income is either constant or shrinking due to wage cut amidst an increase in the interest payment on their property.

If there are good economic conditions and the credit cycle favors, you may benefit from a reduction in interest rates on your ARM. If you are unsure of how interest rates will behave, the only thing that you can do is opt for a fixed rate of mortgage. On fixed rate mortgages, the rate of interest is fixed at the time of taking the mortgage, and hence, is not dependant on market conditions beyond your control.

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Learning Trading Discipline

Jun 19, 2009 Real Estate Properties

Develop trading discipline in yourself if you want to become a successful trader in the long run. In a trading session, lets you come to a point in your market analysis when you have no confidence on the accurate direction of the market forecast. Always remember, a lost opportunity is better than lost capital. Choose not to trade.

Wait for the market conditions to become clearer. Increase the probability of success by trading when the trade setups are strong. This is far more important in forex trading than in stock trading. The forex markets move a lot.

You should understand that high leverage gives you the opportunity to make a lot more money much faster. But in case you go wrong, you can get your account wiped out. When you dont see an opportunity clearly, try to sit on the sidelines. Wait for the market conditions to become clearer. Learn to be a patient trader. Let the market come to you.

You should understand that leverage is a wonderful money making tool. It is the key to making money in the currency markets as no other markets allow high leverage that this market allows. A leverage of 100:1 means that for a $1000 deposit, you can trade $100,000. This huge amount of leverage gives you the opportunity to make the kind of returns that you want.

But using high leverage also has the potential of making you lose some or all of your capital if you trade foolishly. Take the example of credit cards. The bank lets you borrow huge sums of money using your credit card on the promise that you will pay it back.

But if you abuse your credit card, it can lead you into heavy debt or even bankruptcy. Just like managing your credit card, you need to manage leverage in forex trading. Just because you have $10,000, does not mean that you should trade 10 lots. Using all your capital would be foolish.

A very effective trading method yet very conservative would be to never use leverage of more than 20% on your capital in the account. You should only trade two lots with a $10,000 capital in your account. Use good money management rules. Trade with discipline! You can grow your account realistically in a short period of time.

Understand the power of compounding. The compounding factor applied to your capital can make it grow fast in a short period of time. Many people want to get rich quick and take unnecessary risks while trading. They think that a few big wins will make them rich. They dont focus on proper trading principles or rules. You need to develop trading discipline. Follow simple money management rules consistently and persistently.

Suppose you open a mini account. Start by trading one position of a tenth of a lot. You will not make much money in the beginning. The position size is only one tenth of a normal lot. Be patient! The percentage of returns will compound over time. You will trade a much larger sum of money with the passage of time.

As a trader, you should make realistic goals that can be achieved over time. You should always trade with the money that you can afford to lose! Never ever trade with money that you cannot afford to lose! It is foolish. You should never borrow money to trade. You should not use money that you would use to pay monthly utility bills. You should not use your life savings. You should not think like a gambler.

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Identifying Breaking Support & Resistance

Jun 3, 2009 Real Estate Properties

Support and resistance levels are used by investors and speculators to determine how far they believe a currency pair will move between the two levels. This also tells them at what points the price action may turn around due to the buying or selling pressure and start moving in the opposite direction.

Sometimes, the markets change direction due to a shift in some underlying fundamental factor. The market change of direction due to the shift in underlying economic factors is strong enough to cause a currency pair to break through a previously established support and resistance level. When a previous support and resistance level is broken by the markets, new support and resistance levels are established. However, the broken levels may still have some influence on the market in the future.

Often, there maybe attempted breakouts also known as false breakouts! With experience in forex trading, it will become clearer to you that prices do not always stop at exactly the same points each time. So if you are going to use precise requirements for your support and resistance, those levels may not hold up every time. You are going to fake yourself out of a lot of valid price movements that take place.

Even when you take all the precautions with your support and resistance levels, you may fall victim to a false breakout. Now, you will ask how I can tell when the price has truly broken through support and resistance in a new direction.

There are primarily two methods that you can use to filter out a false breakout with a true breakout. These two methods are setting price-amplitude benchmarks and identifying role reversals.

Setting price amplitude benchmarks involves analyzing a chart to determine if you can identify when the price momentarily broke through the prevailing support and resistance level before pulling back and once again returning to the previous level.

The dips through the predetermined levels are usually short lived. You can draw a secondary support and resistance lines which you can then utilize as your price-amplitude benchmarks.

A price amplitude benchmark tells you that if the price breaks through the predetermined level but does not break through the benchmark, you dont need to worry about a change in the direction of the trend. However, if the price has enough momentum to breach the benchmark, it has a good chance of continuing in the new direction.

Identifying role reversals method involves watching the price action to see if support levels turn into resistance levels and resistance levels turn into support levels. Often, you will see the price action bounce off a level of resistance, then turn around and start heading lower and bounce off the previous resistance level.

When a resistance level is broken, that same level will turn into a support level. Conversely when a support level is broken, that same level will turn into a resistance level. What this tells is that you can use both the benchmark and the role reversal confirmations in your trading analysis.

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How to Calculate Support and Resistance in Forex Trading

Jun 2, 2009 Real Estate Properties

You should learn technical analysis. It will give you the edge as a currency trader. It will develop your confidence in your ability and capacity to predict what will happen in the markets in the future.

But the most important setback with most of the technical indicators is that they are always lagging behind the markets. Lag means some of the price action has already taken place before the movement is reflected by these technical indicators.

However, support and resistance levels especially those calculated based on Fibonacci levels are considered to be leading indicators of the price action. They lead the markets in predictable paths. Now, when we are saying predictable, it does not mean 100% guaranteed, but these levels can be pretty close.

Support is the price level that a currency pair touches but cannot break through to the downside. Support is also sometimes called the floor of the currency pair price movement.

Resistance is the price level that a currency pair has trouble breaking through to the upside. Resistance level is also known as the ceiling of the currency pair price movement.

Many new traders are surprised at the strangely predictable and reliable price action that takes place at the support and resistance levels. Most of the time, they will find the price action oscillating between the two levels in a market.

Why it is that majority of the people begin buying and selling at the given support and resistance levels. There is nothing on the charts that forces the people to do so.

The most plausible explanation is that majority of the traders think the support level as the best price available to them and considers it an excellent opportunity to buy once it reaches the support level.

Similarly, at resistance, majority of the traders think that currency pair is not favorably priced and has reached its highest price. So they consider it as an excellent opportunity to sell the currency pair.

You will have an edge and an advantage in your currency trading if you are capable of accurately identifying and predicting the support and resistance levels in the markets. As more and more traders use technical analysis in trading and calculate the support and resistance levels, the more these levels become self fulfilling prophesies.

One important characteristic of support and resistance levels is that the price level is reached a number of times but a breakout never takes place and is never breached. Support and resistance levels are horizontal for a ranging markets and they can be sloping up or down for a trending market.

What happens at the support level is that as traders begin to sell the currency pair and take profit, the price of the currency pair starts to drop down. As the price starts to fall, other forex traders who were interested in buying the currency pair watch how far it will go down.

Most of them have done their calculations as to how far the price will fall down before they place a buy order. Past price action has convinced them the price offered at the support level is the best. So when it reaches that level, most of them jump into action and start buying.

When there are more buyers than sellers, the price of the currency pair starts to rebound and rise. It rises till the resistance level determined by most of them when majority decide that the currency pair is now over priced and start selling.

This oscillating price action keeps on repeating itself and the support and resistance levels are seldom breached until and unless there is a fundamental change in the markets that forces new levels and a new direction.

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