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A Shockingly Simple Stocks Momentum Indicator

Mar 9, 2010 Uncategorized

Following a trend is great. But if the trend is moving quickly, you want to know that so that you can get ahead of it. If the rate of change of the trend is going up, rising prices are going to follow quickly.

Momentum was the velocity multiplied by the mass of the object. Now first what is a momentum? You must have read about the momentum in high school physics.Velocity was the rate of change. Now. a simple way to calculate the momentum of any security price is to divide the closing price today by the closing price ten days back and then multiply it by 100! So when we talk of momentum in trading, we are talking of the rate of change of any security prices.

This gives you the momentum indicator. If the prices didn’t go anywhere momentum indicator will be 100. If the prices went up, the momentum indicator will be greater than 100 and the prices went down, the momentum indicator will be less than 100. Now, a trend is expected to continue if the momentum indicator is greater than 100.

Momentum is a leading indicator. It tells you what is likely to happen in the future not what happened in the past. Momentum trading is done with some attention to the fundamentals. When key business fundamentals like the sales or profits are accelerating at the same time the security price is going up, momentum is likely to continue.

However, in momentum investing, you search for stocks that have rising prices that are expected to continue for sometime. So you buy high and sell even higher within a few weeks making a decent profit. You can use that profit to do more investing. As said before, instead of investing in a security or a stock you can do momentum investing. When you are doing ordinary investing, you are waiting for its price to appreciate to give you a capital gain. This price appreciation might take from a few months to even years tying down your capital in that investing.

What a momentum investor is looking for is a security that is going to move big. But this move big is going to happen on a long term horizon instead of a few days. The expectation is to make money on the longer term. The thought is that if the security is starting to go up in price, it will keep going up in prices unless something dramatic happens to change. In the meantime, you can make a lot of money.

There are many way to do momentum investing. One is the price momentum that we have talked above. The other can be Earning Momentum. If you are a long haul investor who keeps an eye on the financial statements of different companies and you find that the quaterly earnings are going up steadily from one quater to another. What this means is that the stock price will also accelerate and follow suit.

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Energy Futures (Part I)

Nov 27, 2009 Real Estate

Again crude oil prices have started rising. The recent price of crude oil was quoted as $ 80 per barrel. It is being predicted that the price will soon reach the $ 100 per barrel mark. One thing should be clear to you. Energy markets will be a major focal point in the global financial makers and the global economy for many years to come. The key to understanding energy trading is to understand oil, natural gas, gasoline and heating oil futures.

Trading in energy futures is centralized at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange. NYMEX trades futures and options contracts for crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, gasoline, coal, electricity and propane. NYMEX is also home to trading in metals. Trading in NYMEX is conducted in two divisions: 1) The NYMEX Division and 2) The COMEX Division. For smaller traders NYMEX offers e-mini contracts for oil and natural gas that also trades on the GLOBEX network of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

Next to interest rates, energy and especially oil is the center of the universe not only for the industry but also for the financial markets. The relationship between energy and interest rates is very important to understand. This relationship ties together the two most important aspects of the global economy: energy (the fuel for growth) and the interest rates (the catalyst that powers borrowed money to do things).

The relationship between energy and interest rates is very important to understand. This relationship ties together the two most important aspects of the global economy: energy (the fuel for growth) and the interest rates (the catalyst that powers borrowed money to do things). Next to interest rates, energy and especially oil is the center of the universe not only for the industry but also for the financial markets.

As a trader, you should know this fact that oil price rise often tends to slow down the economy and lower retail sales as well as consumer confidence with lower traffic on the highways. Sometimes the rise in oil prices leads to the increase in interest rates through the bond market and the actions of central banks and the other times the opposite happens. Rise in oil prices if often inflationary.

Now you need to understand the Peak Oil Concept. Peak oil is the concept that the world oil production has peaked and the production of oil will never be as high again. Oil prices and the interest rates generally move in the same direction when viewed over long periods of time.

In any case, most of the experts now agree that in the next 10-20 years, the oil production will peak and after that it will start declining. Now you should keep these facts in the background of your mind as a trader.

Now this means that in the short run, following oil prices can be a highly profitable strategy. Your aim as a trader is to make quick profits by trading the price fluctuations in the oil market. So the important facts that you need to keep in the back of your mind while trading oil is: 1) Demand fluctuates but supply of oil is finite. 2) The world runs on oil and any threat to the supply of oil often leads to rising prices. As an oil trader your primary goal is to consider the effects of events on the supply of oil and correlate this effect with your charts.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Trade Dow Futures . Learn Commodity Trading ! Get a totally unique version of this article from our article submission service

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What Is Commodity Trading? (Part I)

Sep 17, 2009 Real Estate

Do you like commodity trading? In the beginning chances are you will be overwhelmed by the number of tradable commodities to choose from. There are 32 tradable commodities to be exact. Commodity trading presents both challenges and opportunities. Commodities markets are both broad and deep.

How are you going to decide that you want to trade gold or crude oil, soybeans or aluminum, silver or palladium, natural gas or frozen concentrated orange juice? What about cattle, corn, feeder or copper?

Do you remember the sudden spike in oil prices from around $60 to $145 during the summer of 2008? If the oil prices go up, the central banks are forced to raise the interest rates to fight inflation. Much of what happens in the world-from your home mortgage loan to your job depends on the global oil prices and the interest rates.

This can happen again. Just because the global economy has gone into a recession, the demand for oil has decreased. But once the global economy starts to expand again, oil demand will again go up.

So how do you decide which commodity to trade? How do you know what is the best way to invest in commodities? Should you trade commodities futures, or get stocks of companies dealing with commodities like Exxon Mobil or Starbucks or invest in ETFs or commodities mutual funds. Just getting started in commodity trading can be daunting.

You should know that futures trading is only one way of getting involved in commodity trading. However, as there are many commodity futures contracts that are traded on various exchanges, a lot of investors think that commodity trading is synonymous with futures trading. There are many other ways of commodity trading.

Between 2001 and 2006, oil, gold, copper and silver all hit an all time high. Many other commodities reached an oil time high. The prices are down now somewhat due to the global recession. Many analysts are of the opinion with the end of global recession the prices of most of the commodities will skyrocket. Do you know that the 21st century is the century of commodity trading?

A long term cyclical bull market in commodities is expected during the first part of the 21st century. This bullish opinion is based on some fundamental factors like the global population explosion, urbanization and the industrialization of the emerging market economies like Brazil, India and China (BRIC). As the recession will end and the global demand for commodities will rise again. The above three economies play an important role in the demand for commodities.

Commodities are poised for a rally that will last well into the 21st century. However, it doesnt mean that there will be no minor downturns like that in the present due to the recession. Gold prices are still going higher and higher.

Wealthy investors are taking refuge in gold due to the financial crisis and weakness of US Dollar. Do you want to ride the trend in the gold market? Countries like China, India, Russia etc are buying gold in the open markets that is driving the gold prices higher and higher. You maybe already late!

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. He is interested in day trading commodities and currencies. Trade Dow Futures. Learn Candlestick Charting!

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Forex Demo Account (Part I)

Aug 20, 2009 Real Estate

Almost every forex broker offers a free practice account to new clients. All you need to do is to sign up with any good forex broker. The best way for new traders to get a handle on what forex trading is all about is to open a practice account.

Practice accounts give you the great chance to experience the forex market. You can see how the price changes at different times of the day. Practice accounts are funded with virtual money. So you are able to make trades with no real money at stake and gain experience in how margin trading works.

How various currency pairs may differ from each other? How the forex market reacts to new information when major news and economic data is released. You can trade your practice account with real market conditions without any fear of losing money.

You will also learn using different market orders on your practice account. Imagine using your real money trying to figure out how different market orders work. You will learn on your practice account how to manage an open position? This will improve your understanding of how margin trading and leverage works. You can also start analyzing charts and following technical indicators on your practice account. Without any fear of losing your money, you can experiment with different trading strategies and see how they work out in the real market conditions.

Practice accounts are a great way to experience real forex markets. You can also test drive all the features and functionality of a brokers platform. However, one thing you will never be able to simulate on your practice account is the emotions involved in trading. Emotions will only come into play once you put your real money on the line.

You can use market orders like the limit orders or the one cancels the other orders. However, you can also trade the current price of the market using the click and deal feature of your brokers platform. There are many ways to pull the trigger in the forex market. Pulling the trigger means how to enter or exit a position.

Many traders like the idea of opening a position by trading at the market as opposed to leaving an order that may or may not get executed. Most prefer the certainty of knowing that they are in the market.

Just specify the amount that you want to trade. Click on the buy or sell button to execute the trade. The forex trading platform responds back within a second or two with a pop-up message either confirming or not confirming that the position was opened. Most forex brokers provide live streaming prices that you can deal on with a simple click of your computer mouse.

You must know that attempts to trade at the market can sometimes fail in very fast moving markets. Currency markets can suddenly become highly volatile. This happens when prices are adjusting quickly like after a data release or break of a key technical level or price point.

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Rollovers in Currency Markets

Aug 19, 2009 Real Estate

Rollovers represent the intersection of interest rate markets and forex markets. When an open position from one value date or settlement date is rolled over to the next value date or settlement date, this is known as Rollover in currency trading. Rollovers are unique to the currency markets.

Keep this in mind what you are trading is in fact the good old cash. Currency is money after all. So when you talk of money, interest rates naturally come into play. Rollover rates depend on the difference between the interest rates of the two currencies in the pair that you are trading.

When you are long on a currency, it is like having a deposit in a bank account. If you are short, its like take a loan from the bank. Just as you would expect to earn interest on a bank deposit and pay interest on a loan, you should expect an interest gain or an interest expense on holding a currency position over time.

Interest rate differential is the difference between the interest rates between the two currencies. You should think of the open currency position as one currency with the positive balance (the currency you are long) and one with negative balance (the currency you are short).

Because your accounts are in two different currencies, the interest rates of two different countries apply. You can find the interest rates of different countries from Wall Street Journal Online, Financial Times online or that matter any good financial website. You should look for the base or benchmark lending rates in each country.

The larger the impact from rollovers, the larger the interest rate differential! The smaller the impact of the rollovers, the narrower the interest rate differential! If you hold an open position past the settlement date or value date, rollovers are usually carried out by your forex broker.

Some online forex brokers apply the rollover rates by applying the rollover credit or debit directly to your margin balance. Other forex brokers apply the rollover rates by adjusting the average rate of your open position. Rollovers are applied to your open currency position by two offsetting trades that result in the same open position.

Rollovers are not applied if you dont carry a position over the change in the value date. Rollovers do not apply for day traders who usually close their positions at the end of each trading day. Rollovers are applied to open position after 5.00 PM EST change in value date. Rollovers only apply to your over night open position carried over to the next day.

If you are short the currency with the higher interest rate and long the currency with the low interest rates, rollovers will cost you money. If you are long the currency with the higher interest rate and short the currency with the lower interest rate, rollover can earn you interest income.

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Some Trading Secrets

Aug 18, 2009 Real Estate

Trading is not investing. Trading is speculating. Trading can be challenging. Speculating is defined as taking business risk in the hope of profiting from market fluctuations. Successful speculating requires predicting outcomes and analyzing different market situations. It also requires putting your money on the side of the trade on which you think the market is going to go up or down.

Trading can also be the appreciation of the fact that if you apply the correct techniques for analyzing trades, managing your money and protecting your account, you can be wrong 70 percent of the time and still be a successful trader.

Opportunity keeps on shifting from one market to another. For example, forex and gold markets are really hot while stocks are down. Gold prices are going up. Those who entered the trend at the right time and ride the trend for maximum profits will make a lot of money in the gold markets. Right now countries, institutional investors, retail investors, in fact almost everyone is running and buying gold as a hedge against turmoil in the global markets.

This situation may continue for some months or some years but suddenly you will find that crude oil futures have become a great investment opportunity. Many hedge funds had made a lot of money by investing in crude oil futures in the year 2008.

As the global economy recovers and demand for oil increases, oil prices will again go up in a few years time. Timing for entering the market and the timing for exiting the market is very important for a successful trade. In trading it is the timing that is of essence.

A lot of people make the mistake of focusing only on one market. Many people end up spending time on only one market. In reality all the markets are interlinked. Successful trading requires mastering a strategy that enables you to trade multiple markets and multiple time frames. If something happens in one market, you will find the repercussions in the other markets.

Many traders get stuck up with one market. They do testing, development, put on a million indicators, go and trade live. But then what almost happens is that the market starts to go sideways or the opportunity shifts to another market. While they do everything they can while spending all kinds of time trying to figure out one market and one timeframe.

There were so many stocks just a few years ago that were incredible to trade that either dont exist anymore or would not trade successfully today. So you really have to have the ability to be able to adopt the market conditions and not waste your time to really master one market which is critical.

This is counterintuitive. A lot of people will teach you that you really need to learn the ins and outs of one market. But the problem with that philosophy is that its very difficult to stay with one market and one timeframe.

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Types of Market Orders (Part III)

Aug 17, 2009 Real Estate

You must be clear that in forex trading, stop loss execution policy is somewhat different than that in equity trading. Suppose, your stop loss order to sell is 1.2540! The brokers lowest price quote is 1.2540/1.2543. Your stop loss order will be executed. If the broker bid price reaches your stop loss order rate, stop loss orders to sell are triggered. Almost the same goes for buy orders.

There is a lot of volatility in the currency markets when some economic report is released. Most of the forex brokers will never guarantee stop losses around the release of economic reports. However, under normal trading conditions, some brokers will guarantee against slippage on your stop loss order. Definition of the normal trading conditions is again the discretion of the broker. The downside of this is that your stop loss order will be executed earlier and when placing them on your forex trading platform you will have to add in extra cushion.

One-Cancels-the-Other Orders: A one cancels the other order is usually abbreviated as OCO order. A one cancels the other order is a stop loss order paired with a take profit order. Until one of the order levels is reached by the market and closes your position, your position stays open. An OCO order is the ultimate insurance policy for any open position! When one order level is reached and triggered, the other order is automatically cancelled.

OCO orders are highly recommended for every open position. Lets make it clear with an example. Suppose you are short USD/JPY at 120.00. You think that if it goes up beyond 120.00, its going to keep going higher. Thats where you decide to put your stop loss buying order.

You place your take profit buying order at 118.50 as you believe that USD/JPY has downside potential to 118.50. As long as the market trades between 120.00 and 118.50, your position remains open. Your risk is clearly defined. You now have two orders bracketing the market. Suppose USD/JPY 118.50 price level is reached first, your take profit order is triggered and you buy back at a profit. However, suppose USD/JPY 120.00 price level is hit first, your position is stopped out at a loss.

Contingent Orders: A contingent order is an order where you combine several types of orders to create a complete currency trading strategy. Contingent orders are also referred to as if/then orders. If/then orders require the If order to be done first. Only then the second part of the order becomes active. So they are sometimes also called If done/then orders.

Your order is only filled based on the price spread of the trading platform. This is the key feature of most forex broker order policies. If the trading platform offer rate reaches your buy rate that means that your limit order is only executed. Similarly, a limit order is only executed if the trading platform bid price reaches your sell rate.

Lets use an example to make it clear. Suppose you have a buy order to sell CHF/USD at 1.2855. Your brokers spread on CHF/USD pair is 2 pips. If the trading platform price is 1.2852/1.2854, your buy order will be filled. If the lowest price is 1.2853/1.2855, the limit order will not be filled as the brokers lowest rate of 1.2855 does not match your buy rate of 1.2855. Almost the same thing happens with limit orders to sell.

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What Are Market Orders? (Part II)

Aug 16, 2009 Real Estate

Stop Loss Orders: If the market moves against your position, stop loss orders are used to limit losses. If you dont use stop loss orders, you are leaving yourself at the mercy of the markets. A dangerous proposition! Stop loss orders are critical to your trading survival. The traditional stop loss order does just that. It stops losses by closing out an open position that is losing money.

Stop loss orders are on the other side of the take profit orders but in the same direction. If you are long, your stop loss order would be to sell but at a lower price than the current market price. If you are short, your stop loss order would be to buy but at a higher price than the current market price.

Trailing Stop Loss Orders: A trailing stop loss order is a stop loss order that you set at a fixed number of pips from your entry rate. As the market price moves, the trailing stop order adjusts the order rate but only in the direction of your trade.

Suppose you are long on EUR/CHF at 1.2654. You set the trailing stop loss order at 30 pips. The stop will initially become active at (1.2654-30=) 1.2624. The trailing stop loss order continues to adjust itself higher as the market moves higher. The stop adjusts itself and will become active at 1.244 if the EUR/USD rate goes up to 1.2674.

When the market puts in the top, your trailing stop will be 30 pips below the top. If the market ever goes down by 30 pips from the top, the trailing stop loss order will be triggered and your open position closed. So in our example, you are long at 1.2654. You set the trailing stop loss at 30 pips. The stop order will become active at 1.2624.

Suppose the market never ticks up. Instead goes straight down. You will be stopped out at 1.2624. Suppose the market first rises to 1.2664. Then it declines 40 pips. Your trailing stop loss order will first rise to (1.2664-30=) 1.2634. Thats where you would be stopped out.

You must have heard the saying often while trading: Cut your losses and let your winners run. A trailing stop loss order allows you to do exactly that. The idea is that in case of a possible winning trade, you wait for the market to stage for a reversal. The trailing stop loss order takes you out of your trade instead of you picking the right level to exit on your own.

Using stop loss orders is critical in trading as it helps you in money and risk management. Trading without the stop loss orders is foolish! Never ever do that! So the key to successful trading is to cut losing positions quickly and let winning positions run. This is what a trailing stop loss order does. It helps your winners run and cuts your losses.

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Types of Market Orders (Part I)

Aug 15, 2009 Real Estate

Currency traders use market orders to catch market movements when they are not in front of their screens. Just to remind you that forex markets are open 24 hours a day, five days a week. A market move is just likely to happen while you are asleep or in the shower as while you are sitting in front of your computer screen.

Market orders are very critical to your trading success. Think of the different types of market orders as trades waiting to happen. If you enter an order and the subsequent price action triggers its execution, you are in the market so be as careful as possible while playing with the market orders. Trading can be very difficult without these market orders.

Experienced currency traders routinely use orders to implement a trade strategy from entry to exit, capture sharp short term price fluctuations, limit risk in volatile or uncertain markets and preserve trading capital from unwanted loss. Market orders are essential for maintaining trading discipline.

Forex markets can be notoriously volatile and difficult to predict. While limiting the impact of any adverse price movements, using market orders can help you capitalize on short term price movements.

You probably dont have a well thought out trading plan if you dont use market orders. It will also give you the peace of mind in trading. There is no guarantee that the use of market orders will limit your losses and protect your profits in all market conditions. However, a disciplined use of market orders will help you quantify the risk that you are taking.

A number of different types of market orders are available to currency traders in forex markets. You should add the market orders to the list of questions you need to ask the broker when you open an account with a forex broker because you should know that not all market orders are available at all online forex brokers.

Take Profit Orders: An old market saying, You cant go broke taking profits. Use the take profit order to lock in profits when you have an open position in the market. Suppose you are short EUR/USD at 1.2354. Your take profit order will be to buy back the position and be place somewhere below 1.2334 making a profit of 20 pips. If you are long GBP/USD at 1.8845, your take profit order will be to sell the position somewhere higher close to 1.8875.

Limit Orders: Dont forget the saying, Buy low and sell high. A limit order is any market order that triggers a trade at more favorable levels than the current market price. If the limit order is to sell then it must be placed somewhere above the current market price. If the limit order is to buy, it must be entered somewhere below the current market price.

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How About Currency Trading? (Part II)

Aug 14, 2009 Real Estate

Crosses enable currency traders to directly target trades to specific individual currencies to take advantage of news or events. The most active traded crosses focus on the three non USD currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP) and are known as the euro crosses, yen crosses and the sterling crosses. The most actively traded cross currency pairs are: EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY.

For a new traded there are some surprises in currency trading. You may notice that the currencies are combined in a seemingly strange way when you look up at the currency pairs. For example, if euro-yen (EUR/JPY) is a euro-yen cross, why it is not being also referred to as yen-euro (JPY/EUR)? The answer is these conventions have been designed to reflect traditionally strong currencies versus traditionally weak currencies with the strong currency coming first. Those quoting conventions were evolved over the years.

The first currency in the currency pair is known as the base currency. For example in USD/EUR, USD is the base currency. It is the base currency that you are buying or selling when you buy or sell a currency pair. The second currency in the pair is known as the counter currency. In the above currency pair, Euro is the counter or secondary currency. So if you buy 100,000 EUR/JPY. You have just bought 100,000 Euros and sold the equivalent amount in Japanese Yen.

Therefore you can say currency trading involves simultaneously buying and selling. Going long in currency trading means having bought a currency pair! When you are long, you are looking for the prices to go higher. You want to sell at a higher price from that where you bought. It will make you a profit. If you are long and the price goes down, you will make a capital loss.

Going short in currency trading means selling a currency pair! It means that you have sold the currency pair, meaning you have sold the base currency and bought the counter currency. When you anticipate the price of a currency pair going down, you go short in anticipation of the price going further down. This will make you a capital gain later when you exit your position. In currency trading going short is as common as going long. Unlike stock trading where you had to observe the up tick rule before you could go short. In currency trading there is no such rule.

Selling high and buying low is the standard currency trading strategy. Having no position in the market is known as being square or flat. If you have an open position and you want to close it, its called squaring up. If you are short, you need to buy to square up. If you are long, you need to sell to go flat.

A clear understanding of how P&L works is especially critical to online margin trading. Profit and Loss is how traders measure success and failure. You will need to pony up cash as collateral to support the margin requirements established by your broker when you open an online currency trading account.

Profit and Loss calculations are pretty straight forward and are based on position size and the number of pips you make or lose. A pip is the smallest increment of price fluctuation in currency pairs. Pips are also referred to as points. Most of the currency pairs are quoted up to four decimal places. Suppose EUR/USD quote is 1.2853. If the price moves from 1.2853 to 1.2873, it has gone up by 20 pips. Pip is the increase or decrease in the fourth decimal digit.

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